Sunday, August 8, 2010

Special Situation Investing or Risk Arbitrage

You can text search the database for “odd lot tender” or something similar with better keywords.

http://searchwww.sec.gov/EDGARFSClient/jsp/EDGAR_MainAccess.jsp

There are also different forms of arbitrage.

◦Cash only transactions where stock is paid for in cash
◦Stock for stock where the shareholders are given stock of the other company
◦Partial stock where a percentage of the share is converted to stock and cash
◦Purchase merger securities (the Greenblatt recommends looking into warrants)
Focus On This Checklist (source: fwallstreet.com)Before you invest any cash, you should be able answer all the items below.

1.Due diligence by both parties2.Financing and regulator approval3.Get preliminary shareholder sentiment (or controlling shareholder approval)4.Obtain regulator (SEC, FCC, any and all) approval5.Get final shareholder approval at a meeting called for that purpose6.Insiders continually vesting or buying sharesRisks to Think About◦Calculate the potential upside and downside vs time. In the PSD merger, I’ve given the chance of success 90% with a gain of around 25% within 1 month. This is excellent odds.
◦Unpredictability: Anything can happen in mergers. Financing can break down at the last minute, the market can go crazy and take everyone with them, earthquakes could ruin the operation of the business etc etc.
◦Allocate assets accordingly depending on your odds.
◦Taxes will have to be paid because this is a short term strategy. Consider this when you calculate gains.
But most of all, stick to investing in solid companies if you are unsure or feel uneasy with the whole notion.

H/T : http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/special_situation/profit-from-special-situations-risk-arbitrage/

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