Monday, November 29, 2010

Text to Speech app for IPOD/ITOUCH/IPAD

Since I am not getting enough time from work nowadays I have started using the text to speech app for catching up while I am driving. With this app I can hear the conference call transcripts, research reports from VIC, 10k/q`s on the drive as well as convert ebooks and news articles.

http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/speak-it-text-to-speech/id308629295?mt=8

Now I find myself adding more and more articles to the playlists so I highly recommend it to anyone who is having difficulty in finding time to sit at one place and read.

Friday, November 19, 2010

Lessons of Value Investor

http://www.scribd.com/full/43383187?access_key=key-15j6ruromh1kdzbvhbih

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

St Joe Short Interest

I recently bought JOE at around 20 bucks a share. The stock price is falling like a rock throughout the year. But things are getting interesting. I am not going to comment here about the underlying valuation of the company but just about the stock itself.

As of today(11/17/10) in millions

Total outstanding shares : 92
Total shares sold short : 21.6
Average daily volume : 2
Days to cover short at this volume : 18

Now this stock is liked by long term value oriented investors who I can speculate would not be selling the stock at these prices. Most likely they will be buying more. Lets find out who these people might be

1) Fairholme Fund : 27 (including holdings in privately managed funds besides Fairholme fund)
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10890674/1/berkowitz-to-einhorn-thank-you.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN
2) THS Partners: 4.8  ( long term long only investors)
http://www.thspartners.com/philosophyprocess/process/
3) Third Avenue Management: 2.2 ( there is no way they will be selling)
4) Royce & Associates: 3.1 (Again a value investor that might not sell)
5) Janus Capital Management: 10.3 ( JOE is held in Janus Contrarian fund. I am not confident about them but since they are also value oriented fund I may speculate that they wont also sell at these prices)

Hence,
Total stocks not available in market for trading = 27+4.8+2.2+3.1+10.3 = 47.4

Assuming all of the above is true, 21.6/(92-47.4) = 48% of the float is sold short.

If the short interest rises further or if the stock price falls further it will be a good trade to buy some out of the money CALL options on this stock expiring in 6 months or so.

What do you think ?

I am not sure how many shares David Einhorn have shorted. If its a big position then IMO he should start covering soon.

As of today option expiring in Mar 18, 2011 to buy JOE at $17.5/share is selling for $1.7/contract