Showing posts with label klarman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label klarman. Show all posts

Friday, March 4, 2011

Excerpts from Seth Klarman's 2010 Letter

http://myinvestingnotebook.blogspot.com/2011/03/our-national-predicament-excerpts-from.html

Disaster hedging – always an important tool for investors – takes on heightened significance in today's unprecedentedly challenging environment. Yet, as this insight is not unique to us, the cost of insurance is high. There are no easy ways to navigate these turbulent waters. But because the greatest risks are of currency debasement and runaway inflation, protection against a currency collapse – such as exposure to gold – and against much higher interest rates seem like necessary hedges to maintain.

Friday, August 20, 2010

Klarman's Perseverance

perseverance 

–noun
1.
steady persistence in a course of action, a purpose, a state,etc., esp. in spite of difficulties, obstacles, or discouragement.
Normally people know Seth Klarman as the genius who averaged over 20% per annum since 1983 while S&P 500 over the same period averaged only 7%. The difference between those two returns is that if you invested 1000$ with Seth Klarman in 1983 it would have become $137000 today while the same amount would be $6200 today if invested in S&P 500.

But one quality of Seth Klarman that gets under emphasized is his perseverance. Lets look at the following table

During the tech bubble of late 90's tech stocks valuations were sky high. Due to the lack of finding good values Klarman kept around 25% in cash, 30% in special situations, 10% in bond and only 35% in stocks. He also hedge the stock market exposure by buying PUT options. Every year from 1995 to 2000 he underperformed the index and also lost money on the PUT options that would expire worthless at end of the year. But consistently he held onto the cash as well as kept buying PUT options every year. 

As we all know well S&P 500 index fell 43% after 2000 and 10 years later is still 30% lower than its peak set in 2000.

He wrote this to his investors in 1999 
"We underperformed in 1999 not because we abandoned our strict investment criteria but because we adhered to them, not because we ignored fundamental analysis but because we practiced it, not because we shunned value but because we sought it, and not because we speculated but because we refused to do so. In sum,and very ironically, we got hurt not speculating in the U.S. stock market."
 Thus for long term success in investing you need not just the right technique but the right temperament.

In Buffett's words
"Success in investing doesn't correlate with I.Q. once you're above the level of 125. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing." 

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Enzon Pharma


  • $440 M in cash

  • NOL carryforwards of 90M and 72M for federal and state taxes respectively

  • Many famous value investors on the stock owner list including Klarman, Icahn, Highbridge capital and Iridian Investment.Iridian investment CEO is on board.

  • Core expertise has been in engineering improved versions of injectable therapeutics through the chemical attachment of PEG. Currently, there are six marketed biologic products that utilize our proprietary PEG platform, two of which we had marketed through our specialty pharmaceutical business, Adagen and Oncaspar, and three for which we continue to receive royalties, PEGINTRON, Macugen and CIMZIA.

  • CFO`s performance bonus is tied to "Complete the evaluation and potential sale of PEGINTRON royalties" for 2010

  • CEO resigned in Feb 2010 and was replaced by CTO

  • In Jan 2010 they sold off their specialty pharmaceutical business.This reduced their Research and development – specialty and contracted services expense by $24M per year.

  • Currently their main R&D effort is linked to developing compounds using PEG-SN38 technology for cancer treatment and LNA technology.

  • PEG-SN38 is in Phase 2 of the clinical trial for its efficacy against colorrectal cancer and breast cancer.

  • Corporate research and development expense was $45.6 million, $43.5 million and $44.0 million for the years ended December 31, 2009, 2008, and 2007, respectively.

  • The Royalty income is from 3 drugs PEGINTRON(Merck), CIMZIA(UCB Pharma) and Macugen(OSI Pharma).

  • In August 2007, we sold 25 percent of the future royalties from the sales of PEGINTRON for $92.5 million in gross proceeds.

  • It seems PEGINTRON is their cash cow and selling it will bring lots of money. From 10k "Our current sources of liquidity are our cash reserves, interest earned on such cash reserves and royalties — primarily those related to sales of PEGINTRON. In January 2010, we received approximately $300 million net proceeds from the sale of specialty. Once our board of directors has determined the funding needs for the continuing operation of our business, some portion of the value derived from the sale of specialty may be returned to our stockholders.."

  • Royalty revenue for past 3 years have been 54M,59M and 67M.

So how do we value this business as of Q2 2010 ?

  1. Cash + Marketable Securities(US bonds) = 440M + 70M = 510

  2. Royalty business = 3*92.5M based on valuation that Merck paid = 277.5

  3. R&D expense for future will be in range of 43per annum

  4. G&A = 24M per year. 1Q G&A was outlier because of stock options and salary cost of employees of the sold speciality business.

  5. Debt = $134M 4% notes convertible to common stock at 9.55 per share before June 2013
  6. Company repurchased $12.4M of common stock at price of $10.41 per share in first half of 2010
In short they have $10.7 per share of close to liquid assets. With current price of $10.4 we are getting their development pipeline with its potential upside for free. Following is quoted from a writeup at VIC
In many other, similar situations, I would not expect a pharmaceutical company to curb research and development spending; management typically stands to benefit substantially from the success of R&D spending, but bears none of the cost of failure. Enzon's Board and management, however, are not typical. They were installed after a proxy fight launched precisely because prior management was misallocating capital to research and development. Prior management ran into the arms of Carl Icahn to defend themselves in the proxy fight--prior management is now gone and Icahn has four people on the Board; Iridian has one. Chairman Alex Denner was previously a portfolio manager at Viking. So you have a Board that considers capital allocation as you do. Enzon authorized a $50 million share repurchase in December 2009 (8.4% of the then outstanding stock) and repurchased over $20 million of its convertible notes at a discount in 2009.
I would start a small position at current price of 10.4 and buy more on dips.

Friday, August 13, 2010

Klarman`s Portfolio Update June 30,2010

Added: Enzon and VIASAT
To me the most intersting part is that he kept holding BBEP which is the largest holding in my portfolio. Also he did not sell Solar Cap which I thought he had invested into at the depth of the crisis and might sell after the IPO. Since he is still holding it he might still see value in it. So I have to investingate this company further. Also VIASAT is a mystery to me........by no angle it looks like a value play but I had my doubts about ADCT too and look how that played out.

So I will again revisit ENZN,VSAT and SLRC.