Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Sequoia fund investor day Q&A transript

I know this is a long read but in my opinion its the best article on business insight I have read this year. Highly recommend it.
http://www.sequoiafund.com/reports/transcript10.htm
Question:

I'd like to know your thoughts on gold and energy. I'm looking at the portfolio of some other value managers out in L.A. here and I see that their allocation to energy is about 38 percent and yours is pretty much zero. I'm curious to know what you guys think.

Chase Sheridan:

Generally speaking I would agree with Buffett's comments about gold. You take the yellow metal out of the ground and then you put it to industrial uses or jewelry and then often you put it back into the ground. So it becomes a sentiment bet. You are making a macro bet on the level of worldwide confidence in fiat currency.

To me it just doesn't make any sense. You don't get a yield. If you are really worried about inflation risk, there are ways to hedge inflation risk where you still get a reasonable yield. You might look at timber, you might look at oil companies. But one very good way I think to hedge inflation risk is to invest in excellent companies that have pricing power. You get yield from that; so I don't really see a reason to buy gold when you can invest in a business that leverages the creativity of people and gives you an earnings yield at the same time.

Bob Goldfarb:

I'd add that I think the people who are buying the gold are making a macro bet and they may well be right. But we haven't done that well making macro bets; so we probably are going to stay away from it.

Greg Alexander:

On energy I'd give the same answer I gave a few years ago. Which is it's a good business; we spend time on it. At least three or four people here have written internal reports on energy companies within the last six months. There are some wonderful companies. We own a few shares of Canadian National Resources, which is a very smart company run out of Canada by Murray Edwards. But in general we don't know what the price is going to be of oil and gas. So sort of like with gold, we just don't know what the price will be, we don't really know how to forecast it. So there tend to be people who have firmer opinions than we do about what the price of oil and gas will be. Therefore, they end up being willing to pay more for the shares than we are.

There is a good saying in the oil and gas business that the cure for high prices is high prices, and the cure for low prices is low prices. So for example at the moment no one is interested in gas because the price is so low. But the fact is the gas supply goes down 25 percent in one year in the United States if there is no drilling. So if people would just stop drilling, any supply and demand problem that you could think of would be quickly corrected.

Bob Goldfarb:

One thing I'd add is that some of the oil price is driven by speculators rather than by natural demand of energy users. I'm just more comfortable with a price of a commodity that is set by market forces and doesn't have that speculative component that both oil and gold have.

No comments:

Post a Comment